GROSS FEDERAL DEBT FORECASTS (in billions of dollars)
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
OMB, Feb 04 7486 8133 8726 9318 9931 10564
OMB, Jul 04 7397 8016 8595 9162 9741 10340
CBO, Sep 04 7393 8010 8623 9257 9916 10587 11261 11847 12328 12815 13298
Extend Tax Cuts 7393 8069 8797 9554 10337 11136 11938 12795 13669 14581 15535
plus Reform AMT 7393 8076 8825 9611 10434 11285 12152 13068 13984 14946 15960
GDP 11559 12304 12909 13522 14173 14846 15526 16220 16931 17667 18433
Change, OMB 2/04 726 647 594 592 613 633
Change, OMB 7/04 637 619 579 567 579 599
Change, CBO 9/04 633 617 613 634 659 671 674 586 481 487 483
Extend Tax Cuts 633 676 728 757 783 799 802 857 874 912 954
plus Reform AMT 633 683 749 786 823 851 867 916 916 962 1014
GROSS FEDERAL DEBT FORECASTS (as a percent of GDP)
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
OMB, Feb 04 64.8 66.1 67.6 68.9 70.1 71.2
OMB, Jul 04 64.0 65.1 66.6 67.8 68.7 69.6
CBO, Sep 04 64.0 65.1 66.8 68.5 70.0 71.3 72.5 73.0 72.8 72.5 72.1
Extend Tax Cuts 64.0 65.6 68.1 70.7 72.9 75.0 76.9 78.9 80.7 82.5 84.3
plus Reform AMT 64.0 65.6 68.4 71.1 73.6 76.0 78.3 80.6 82.6 84.6 86.6
GDP (% change) 6.6 6.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
Change, OMB 2/04 6.3 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3
Change, OMB 7/04 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0
Change, CBO 9/04 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.6
Extend Tax Cuts 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
plus Reform AMT 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEFICIT FORECASTS (in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
OMB, Feb 04 -521 -364 -268 -241 -239 -237 -1349
CBO, Mar 04 -477 -363 -273 -274 -286 -281 -272 -176 -38 -34 -15 -1477 -2012
OMB, Jul 04 -445 -331 -261 -233 -228 -229 -1282
CBO, Sep 04 -422 -348 -298 -308 -318 -312 -298 -200 -70 -75 -65 -1584 -2294
Extend Tax Cuts -422 -407 -413 -431 -442 -442 -426 -471 -463 -500 -534 -2133 -4531
plus Reform AMT -422 -414 -434 -460 -482 -494 -491 -530 -505 -550 -594 -2282 -4956
On-budget deficit -574 -521 -491 -519 -546 -554 -554 -468 -347 -359 -353 -2631 -4712
GDP 11559 12304 12909 13522 14173 14846 15526 16220 16931 17667 18433 67755 152530
DEFICIT FORECASTS (as a percent of GDP)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
OMB, Feb 04 -4.5 -3.0 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -2.0
CBO, Mar 04 -4.1 -3.0 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -2.2 -1.3
OMB, Jul 04 -3.8 -2.7 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.9
CBO, Sep 04 -3.7 -2.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -2.3 -1.5
Extend Tax Cuts -3.7 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0 -2.7 -2.9 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -3.0
plus Reform AMT -3.7 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2
On-budget deficit -5.0 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.9 -3.7 -3.6 -2.9 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -3.9 -3.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REVENUE, OUTLAY, AND INTEREST FORECASTS (in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
Total Revenues 1871 2094 2279 2406 2531 2673 2821 3077 3308 3471 3648 11983 28308
Extend Tax Cuts 1871 2035 2164 2283 2407 2543 2693 2806 2915 3046 3179 11434 26071
plus Reform AMT 1871 2028 2143 2254 2367 2491 2628 2747 2873 2996 3119 11285 25646
Total Outlays 2293 2442 2577 2714 2849 2985 3119 3276 3378 3547 3713 13568 30601
Discretionary 888 965 1000 1020 1046 1069 1093 1123 1140 1172 1199 5100 10827
Defense 452 497 514 523 539 551 565 583 588 607 622 2623 5588
Nondefense 436 468 487 497 507 518 528 540 552 565 577 2477 5239
Mandatory 1247 1299 1360 1439 1522 1614 1707 1822 1898 2032 2165 7233 16857
Net interest 159 178 217 255 281 302 319 332 340 343 348 1234 2917
Gross interest 322 349 405 460 504 543 579 611 640 665 691 2261 5447
Extend Tax Cuts^ 322 350 410 471 522 567 609 651 697 742 791 2319 5810
plus Reform AMT^ 322 350 411 473 526 573 618 663 712 759 811 2332 5895
GDP 11559 12304 12909 13522 14173 14846 15526 16220 16931 17667 18433 67755 152530
Nondefense discretionary outlays
billions of $ 436 468 487 497 507 518 528 540 552 565 577
percent change 3.8 7.3 4.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1
CPI-U (% change) 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Percent of GDP 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1
REVENUE, OUTLAY, AND INTEREST FORECASTS (as a percent of GDP)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
Total Revenues 16.2 17.0 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.2 19.0 19.5 19.6 19.8 17.7 18.6
Extend Tax Cuts 16.2 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.9 17.1
plus Reform AMT 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.8
Total Outlays 19.8 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 20.1
Discretionary 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 7.5 7.1
Defense 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.7
Nondefense 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.4
Mandatory 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.7 10.7 11.1
Net interest 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9
Gross interest 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.6
Extend Tax Cuts^ 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.4 3.8
plus Reform AMT^ 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POLICY ALTERNATIVES (in billion of dollars)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
Extend Expiring Tax Provisions
Deficit effect 0 -58 -110 -112 -106 -106 -98 -231 -336 -348 -369 -491 -1874
Debt service 0 -1 -5 -11 -18 -24 -30 -40 -57 -77 -100 -58 -363
Reform the Alternative Minimum Tax
Deficit effect 0 -7 -20 -27 -36 -46 -56 -47 -27 -33 -40 -136 -340
Debt service 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 -9 -12 -15 -17 -20 -13 -85
Increase Discretionary Spending at GDP Growth Rate
Deficit effect 0 -10 -29 -51 -76 -102 -128 -154 -181 -209 -238 -267 -1176
Debt service 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -12 -18 -26 -36 -48 -62 -23 -212
Freeze Total Discretionary Spending at Current Level
Deficit effect 0 10 28 49 72 96 121 148 173 201 229 255 1128
Debt service 0 0 1 3 6 11 17 25 34 46 59 22 203
POLICY ALTERNATIVES (billion of dollars, cumulative)
Total, Total,
2005- 2005-
Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2014
----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------
Extend Expiring Tax Provisions
Deficit effect 0 -58 -168 -280 -386 -491 -589 -820 -1156 -1504 -1874 -491 -1874
Debt service 0 -1 -6 -17 -35 -58 -88 -128 -185 -262 -363 -58 -363
Reform the Alternative Minimum Tax
Deficit effect 0 -7 -27 -54 -90 -136 -192 -239 -266 -299 -340 -136 -340
Debt service 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -13 -22 -34 -49 -66 -85 -13 -85
Increase Discretionary Spending at GDP Growth Rate
Deficit effect 0 -10 -39 -90 -166 -267 -395 -549 -730 -939 -1176 -267 -1176
Debt service 0 0 -1 -4 -11 -23 -41 -67 -103 -151 -212 -23 -212
Freeze Total Discretionary Spending at Current Level
Deficit effect 0 10 38 87 159 255 376 524 697 898 1128 255 1128
Debt service 0 0 1 4 10 22 39 64 98 144 203 22 203
Note: For interest forecasts, policy alternatives (Extend Tax Cuts and Reform AMT)
include just Debt service. For all other items (debt, deficit, and revenue),
the forecasts include Deficit effect and Debt service.
Source: The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, September 2004,
Tables 1-2, 1-3, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7, C-2; Congressional Budget Office, online at
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/57xx/doc5773/08-24-BudgetUpdate.pdf
OMB, Feb 04 forecast from Budget of the United States, FY 2005;
OMB, Jul 04 forecast from Mid-Session Review, FY 2005
Go to Budget Home Page
