EFFECTS ON REVENUES OF EXTENDING EXPIRING TAX PROVISIONS
(in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
Provisions in the EGTRRA expiring...
before 2010~ n.a. n.a. -3 -12 -18 -22 -27 -29 -33 -37 -33 -181
in 2010 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -125 -228 -9 -371
New Provisions in the Economic Stimulus Law^
-1 -6 -35 -43 -38 -34 -30 -28 -26 -25 -122 -264
Other Expiring Tax Provisions*
0 -1 -5 -9 -14 -18 -20 -22 -25 -27 -29 -140
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
Total Effect -1 -8 -45 -67 -72 -77 -79 -83 -208 -317 -194 -956
~ The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 includes:
1) increased exemption amount for alternative minimum tax (expires in 2004),
2) deduction for qualified education expenses (expires in 2005),
3) credit for IRA accounts and 401(k)-type plans (expires in 2006)
4) numerous provisions expiring in 2010
^ The Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 includes:
1) special depreciation-expensing allowances for certain property,
2) a five-year carryback of net operating losses,
3) tax benefits for the area of New York City damaged in the 9-11 attacks
* Other expiring tax provisions includes numerous provisions, such as the
tax credit for research and experimentation.
DEFICITS, REVENUES, AND OUTLAYS UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS
(revenue provisions are extended and disc. outlays grow at rate indicated)
Total Deficit (-) or Surplus (in billions of dollars)*
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline -145 -111 -39 15 52 88 133 177 323 522 -229 1015
Inflation -149 -124 -91 -62 -35 -8 29 63 74 147 -461 -156
GDP -149 -144 -131 -132 -140 -146 -149 -158 -189 -176 -696 -1515
8.5 Percent -149 -152 -163 -188 -225 -273 -320 -383 -481 -532 -878 -2867
0.4 Percent -149 -115 -68 -21 26 75 135 195 234 337 -327 650
-8.5 Percent -149 -76 27 135 244 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 181 n.a.
On-Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus (in billions of dollars)*
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline -315 -299 -246 -209 -190 -173 -147 -122 4 185 -1259 -1513
Inflation -319 -312 -298 -285 -277 -270 -251 -237 -244 -189 -1491 -2683
GDP -319 -331 -337 -356 -382 -407 -428 -457 -507 -511 -1725 -4035
8.5 Percent -319 -339 -369 -411 -466 -533 -599 -680 -797 -866 -1905 -5380
0.4 Percent -319 -303 -275 -245 -216 -187 -145 -105 -85 0 -1358 -1881
-8.5 Percent -319 -264 -180 -90 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -853 n.a.
Off-Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus (in billions of dollars)*
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline 170 188 207 224 242 262 280 299 319 337 1031 2527
Inflation 170 188 207 224 242 262 280 299 319 337 1031 2527
GDP 170 188 206 223 242 261 279 298 318 335 1029 2520
8.5 Percent 170 187 206 223 241 260 279 297 316 334 1028 2514
0.4 Percent 170 188 207 224 243 262 281 300 320 337 1031 2531
-8.5 Percent 170 188 207 225 244 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1034 n.a.
Revenues (in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline 1962 2083 2244 2381 2513 2658 2809 2965 3243 3521 11184 26379
Inflation 1961 2075 2199 2315 2441 2581 2730 2881 3035 3204 10991 25422
GDP 1961 2075 2199 2315 2441 2581 2730 2881 3035 3204 10991 25422
8.5 Percent 1961 2075 2199 2315 2441 2581 2730 2881 3035 3204 10991 25422
0.4 Percent 1961 2075 2199 2315 2441 2581 2730 2881 3035 3204 10991 25422
-8.5 Percent 1961 2075 2199 2315 2441 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10991 n.a.
Discretionary Outlays (in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline 782 803 827 845 864 889 912 936 965 983 4121 8807
Inflation 785 807 831 849 869 894 917 941 971 988 4141 8853
GDP 785 826 869 915 964 1016 1071 1127 1186 1248 4359 10008
8.5 Percent 785 834 900 967 1042 1130 1221 1321 1433 1542 4528 11174
0.4 Percent 785 799 809 811 813 821 825 830 839 836 4017 8168
-8.5 Percent 785 760 718 666 617 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3547 n.a.
Mandatory Outlays and Net Interest (in billions of dollars)
Total, Total,
Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 03-07 03-12
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -----
2002 Baseline 1325 1391 1456 1522 1598 1680 1763 1851 1954 2016 7292 16557
Inflation 1325 1392 1459 1527 1608 1695 1784 1877 1990 2068 7311 16725
GDP 1325 1392 1461 1532 1617 1711 1808 1913 2038 2132 7328 16930
8.5 Percent 1325 1392 1462 1536 1625 1724 1829 1944 2083 2194 7340 17115
0.4 Percent 1325 1392 1457 1524 1602 1685 1769 1857 1961 2031 7301 16605
-8.5 Percent 1325 1391 1453 1513 1581 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7263 n.a.
Note: the above tables assume:
1) All Revenue Provisions Scheduled to Expire in the Next 10 Years are Extended
2) Discretionary Budget Authority Equals President's Request of $759 billion for
2003 and Such Spending Grows at the the specified rate after 2003
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Letter to George V. Voinovich, online at
ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/40xx/doc4004/12-04-VoinovichLetter.pdf
* Definitions of Various Deficits and Surpluses
---------------------------------------------
- Off-Budget Surplus consists of Social Security surplus plus net cash flow
of Postal Service (which doesn't exceed $1 billion for the years shown).
- On-Budget Deficit or Surplus consists of all other deficits or surpluses,
including surpluses run in other government accounts (chiefly Civil Service
Retirement, Military Retirement, Medicare, and Unemployment Insurance).
- Total Deficit or Surplus equals Off-Budget plus On-Budget Deficit or Surplus.
- Public Deficit or Surplus is the change in the Public Debt.
- Gross Deficit or Surplus is the change in the Gross Federal Debt.
Surplus or Deficit (-) (estimated, at end of year)
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Total Deficit -145 -111 -39 15 52 88 133 177 323 522
(Adjustment) -27 -18 -18 -18 -16 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Public Deficit -172 -129 -57 -3 36 72 118 163 309 509
Soc. Security -171 -188 -206 -224 -242 -262 -280 -299 -319 -337
Other govt -60 -95 -111 -123 -129 -134 -137 -142 -148 -160
------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Gross Deficit -403 -412 -374 -349 -336 -323 -300 -279 -157 13
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Ecomomic Outlook, August 2002,
online at http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3735&sequence=2
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