FEDERAL DEBT AT THE END OF FISCAL YEAR: 1940-2007
(in billions of dollars)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- --------
1940 50.7 42.8 7.9 1.7 0.0
1941 57.5 48.2 9.3 2.4 0.0
1942 79.2 67.8 11.4 3.2 0.0
1943 142.6 127.8 14.9 4.3 0.0
1944 204.1 184.8 19.3 5.4 0.0
1945 260.1 235.2 24.9 6.6 0.0
1946 271.0 241.9 29.1 7.6 0.0
1947 257.1 224.3 32.8 8.8 0.0
1948 252.0 216.3 35.8 10.0 0.0
1949 252.6 214.3 38.3 11.3 0.0
1950 256.9 219.0 37.8 12.9 0.0
1951 255.3 214.3 41.0 14.7 0.0
1952 259.1 214.8 44.3 16.6 0.0
1953 266.0 218.4 47.6 18.4 0.0
1954 270.8 224.5 46.3 20.0 0.0
1955 274.4 226.6 47.8 21.1 0.0
1956 272.7 222.2 50.5 22.6 0.0
1957 272.3 219.3 52.9 23.4 0.0
1958 279.7 226.3 53.3 23.9 0.0
1959 287.5 234.7 52.8 23.2 0.0
1960 290.5 236.8 53.7 23.0 0.0
1961 292.6 238.4 54.3 23.4 0.0
1962 302.9 248.0 54.9 22.2 0.0
1963 310.3 254.0 56.3 21.4 0.0
1964 316.1 256.8 59.2 22.0 0.0
1965 322.3 260.8 12.3 61.5 22.2 0.0
1966 328.5 263.7 11.6 64.8 21.6 0.9
1967 340.4 266.6 11.4 73.8 25.6 1.8
1968 368.7 289.5 10.7 79.1 28.1 1.7
1969 365.8 278.1 10.3 87.7 31.9 2.4
1970 380.9 283.2 14.0 97.7 37.7 2.7
1971 408.2 303.0 31.8 105.1 40.8 3.4
1972 435.9 322.4 49.2 113.6 43.8 3.3
1973 466.3 340.9 59.4 125.4 44.3 5.1
1974 483.9 343.7 56.8 140.2 46.1 9.2
1975 541.9 394.7 66.0 147.2 48.2 11.3
1976 629.0 477.4 69.8 151.6 44.9 12.1
1977 706.4 549.1 95.5 157.3 39.6 13.4
1978 776.6 607.1 121.0 169.5 35.4 15.8
1979 829.5 640.3 120.3 189.2 33.4 18.4
1980 909.1 711.9 121.7 197.1 32.3 19.0
1981 994.8 789.4 130.7 205.4 27.2 21.8
1982 1137.3 924.6 140.6 212.7 19.3 26.7
1983 1371.7 1137.3 160.1 234.4 32.0 20.4
1984 1564.7 1307.0 175.5 257.6 32.2 26.0
1985 1817.5 1507.4 222.9 310.2 39.8 32.0
1986 2120.6 1740.8 265.5 379.9 45.9 48.1
1987 2346.1 1889.9 279.5 456.2 65.4 57.0
1988 2601.3 2051.8 345.9 549.5 104.2 72.3
1989 2868.0 2191.0 394.9 677.1 156.7 94.7
1990 3206.6 2411.8 440.3 794.7 214.9 110.2
1991 3598.5 2689.3 477.3 909.2 268.4 125.6
1992 4002.1 3000.1 535.2 1002.1 319.2 139.2
1993 4351.4 3248.8 591.3 1102.6 365.9 149.4
1994 4643.7 3433.4 655.8 1210.2 422.7 150.5
1995 4921.0 3604.8 800.4 1316.2 483.2 143.4
1996 5181.9 3734.5 978.1 1447.4 549.6 152.3
1997 5369.7 3772.8 1218.2 1596.9 630.9 151.2
1998 5478.7 3721.6 1216.9 1757.1 730.3 157.8
1999 5606.1 3632.9 1281.4 1973.2 855.0 184.1
2000 5629.0 3410.1 1224.9 2218.9 1006.9 214.0
2001 5770.3 3320.0 1170.0 2450.3 1169.8 239.2
2002* 6137.1 3477.5 2659.6 1327.5 272.4
2003* 6525.9 3570.3 2955.6 1504.6 310.1
2004* 6892.5 3599.6 3292.9 1700.0 353.6
2005* 7206.9 3547.7 3659.2 1916.7 400.1
2006* 7505.8 3470.0 4035.8 2144.0 455.1
2007* 7803.3 3378.9 4424.4 2386.7 510.7
FEDERAL DEBT PREDICTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2001-2011
(in billions of dollars)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- --------
2001* 5625.0 3174.2 2450.8 1165.6 236.7
2002* 5663.7 2946.8 2716.9 1340.4 270.1
2003* 5723.8 2719.5 3004.3 1533.2 309.8
2004* 5783.5 2473.2 3310.3 1743.0 351.1
2005* 5855.6 2219.4 3636.2 1978.3 397.4
2006* 5912.9 1928.2 3984.8 2228.8 455.7
2007* 5953.0 1602.0 4352.0 2451.6
2008* 6138.0 1404.0 4735.0 2714.7
2009* 6415.0 1279.0 5137.0 2987.7
2010* 6770.0 1208.0 5562.0 3273.9
2011* 7160.0 1158.0 6002.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FEDERAL DEBT AT THE END OF FISCAL YEAR: 1940-2007
(as percentage of GDP)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare GDP
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt ($bil)
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- -------
1940 52.4 44.2 8.2 1.8 0.0 96.7
1941 50.5 42.3 8.2 2.1 0.0 114.0
1942 54.9 47.0 7.9 2.2 0.0 144.2
1943 79.2 70.9 8.3 2.4 0.0 180.1
1944 97.6 88.4 9.2 2.6 0.0 209.0
1945 117.5 106.3 11.3 3.0 0.0 221.3
1946 121.7 108.6 13.1 3.4 0.0 222.7
1947 109.6 95.6 14.0 3.8 0.0 234.6
1948 98.3 84.3 13.9 3.9 0.0 256.4
1949 93.0 78.9 14.1 4.2 0.0 271.5
1950 93.9 80.1 13.8 4.7 0.0 273.4
1951 79.5 66.8 12.8 4.6 0.0 321.0
1952 74.3 61.6 12.7 4.8 0.0 348.8
1953 71.2 58.5 12.7 4.9 0.0 373.4
1954 71.6 59.4 12.3 5.3 0.0 378.0
1955 69.4 57.3 12.1 5.3 0.0 395.2
1956 63.8 51.9 11.8 5.3 0.0 427.7
1957 60.4 48.7 11.7 5.2 0.0 450.7
1958 60.7 49.1 11.6 5.2 0.0 461.1
1959 58.4 47.7 10.7 4.7 0.0 492.1
1960 56.0 45.6 10.3 4.4 0.0 518.9
1961 55.0 44.8 10.2 4.4 0.0 531.8
1962 53.3 43.6 9.7 3.9 0.0 568.5
1963 51.7 42.4 9.4 3.6 0.0 599.7
1964 49.3 40.1 9.2 3.4 0.0 641.3
1965 46.9 37.9 1.8 8.9 3.2 0.0 687.9
1966 43.6 35.0 1.5 8.6 2.9 0.1 754.2
1967 41.8 32.8 1.4 9.1 3.1 0.2 813.5
1968 42.5 33.3 1.2 9.1 3.2 0.2 868.4
1969 38.5 29.3 1.1 9.2 3.4 0.3 949.2
1970 37.6 28.0 1.4 9.6 3.7 0.3 1013.2
1971 37.7 28.0 2.9 9.7 3.8 0.3 1081.4
1972 36.9 27.3 4.2 9.6 3.7 0.3 1181.5
1973 35.6 26.1 4.5 9.6 3.4 0.4 1308.1
1974 33.6 23.8 3.9 9.7 3.2 0.6 1442.1
1975 34.7 25.3 4.2 9.4 3.1 0.7 1559.8
1976 36.2 27.5 4.0 8.7 2.6 0.7 1736.7
1977 35.8 27.9 4.8 8.0 2.0 0.7 1971.3
1978 35.0 27.4 5.5 7.6 1.6 0.7 2218.6
1979 33.1 25.6 4.8 7.6 1.3 0.7 2503.8
1980 33.3 26.1 4.5 7.2 1.2 0.7 2732.1
1981 32.5 25.8 4.3 6.7 0.9 0.7 3061.6
1982 35.2 28.6 4.4 6.6 0.6 0.8 3228.6
1983 39.9 33.1 4.7 6.8 0.9 0.6 3440.5
1984 40.8 34.0 4.6 6.7 0.8 0.7 3839.4
1985 43.9 36.4 5.4 7.5 1.0 0.8 4136.6
1986 48.2 39.5 6.0 8.6 1.0 1.1 4401.4
1987 50.5 40.7 6.0 9.8 1.4 1.2 4647.0
1988 51.9 40.9 6.9 11.0 2.1 1.4 5014.7
1989 53.1 40.5 7.3 12.5 2.9 1.8 5405.5
1990 55.9 42.1 7.7 13.9 3.7 1.9 5735.6
1991 60.7 45.3 8.0 15.3 4.5 2.1 5930.4
1992 64.4 48.2 8.6 16.1 5.1 2.2 6218.6
1993 66.3 49.5 9.0 16.8 5.6 2.3 6558.4
1994 66.9 49.4 9.4 17.4 6.1 2.2 6944.6
1995 67.2 49.2 10.9 18.0 6.6 2.0 7324.0
1996 67.3 48.5 12.7 18.8 7.1 2.0 7694.6
1997 65.6 46.1 14.9 19.5 7.7 1.8 8185.2
1998 63.2 43.0 14.0 20.3 8.4 1.8 8663.9
1999 61.4 39.8 14.0 21.6 9.4 2.0 9124.3
2000 57.8 35.0 12.6 22.8 10.3 2.2 9744.3
2001 56.8 32.7 11.5 24.1 11.5 2.4 10150.5
2002* 59.2 33.6 25.7 12.8 2.6 10361.6
2003* 59.7 32.7 27.1 13.8 2.8 10922.3
2004* 59.8 31.2 28.6 14.7 3.1 11525.8
2005* 59.3 29.2 30.1 15.8 3.3 12158.9
2006* 58.6 27.1 31.5 16.7 3.6 12803.3
2007* 58.0 25.1 32.9 17.7 3.8 13448.0
FEDERAL DEBT PREDICTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2001-2011
(as percentage of GDP)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare GDP
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt ($bil)
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- -------
2001* 54.5 30.8 23.8 11.3 2.3 10312.7
2002* 52.2 27.1 25.0 12.3 2.5 10857.8
2003* 50.0 23.8 26.2 13.4 2.7 11445.8
2004* 48.0 20.5 27.5 14.5 2.9 12059.2
2005* 46.1 17.5 28.6 15.6 3.1 12701.2
2006* 44.2 14.4 29.8 16.7 3.4 13375.7
2007* 42.3 11.4 30.9 17.4 14089.3
2008* 41.4 9.5 31.9 18.3 14834.5
2009* 41.1 8.2 32.9 19.1 15618.5
2010* 41.2 7.3 33.8 19.9 16441.0
2011* 41.4 6.7 34.7 17305.3
* estimated
Note: Gross Debt equals Public Debt plus debt held by federal government
accounts; Social Security includes Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Fund
(OAS) and Disability Insurance Fund (DI); Medicare includes Hospital
Insurance Fund (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance Fund (SMI);
prior budget fiscal year GDP figures from 2007 on were obtained by
using calendar figures and interpolating, using the following formula:
GDP_fiscal(y) = 0.25*GDP_calendar(y-1) + 0.75*GDP_calendar(y);
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2003: Historical Tables,
tables 7.1, 10.1, 13.1; Analytical Perspectives, table 13-6
(prior budget) Budget of the United States Government, FY 2002:
Historical Tables, tables 7.1, 10.1, 13.1; Analytical Perspectives,
table 12-3; 2001 Annual OASDI Trustees Report, page 131, Table VI.C3
=============================================================================
Among the points that the above tables illustrate are the following:
1) The gross federal debt has dropped from 67.3 to 56.8 percent of GDP
since 1996 but is still far above the 32.5 percent of GDP it was at in
1981. The relative size of the debt is more critical than that of the
deficit since it is the debt, not the deficit, that we are paying
interest on and have promised to pay back.
2) In a single year, the projected gross debt in 2007 has increased from
42.3 to 58.0 percent of GDP. Likewise, the projected public debt in
2007 has increased from 11.4 to 25.1 percent of GDP.
3) The foreign holdings of federal debt increased sharply from 1994 to 1997
and has stayed fairly level, at about $1.2 trillion, since then. In
that time, it has risen from 14 to 20 percent of the gross debt and from
19 to 35 percent of the public debt.
4) Even with the surpluses in 1998 through 2001 and the projected surpluses
from 2005 to 2007, the gross debt has increased and will continue to
increase every year. This is because the reported deficit does not
include monies borrowed from government accounts. The following table
shows the debts projected to be held by those accounts in 2003.
================================================================================
DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS (billions of dollars)
Investment or disinvestment Holdings
----------------------------- end of
2001 % of 2002 2003 2003 % of
Description actual total est. est. est. total
---------------------------------- ------ ----- ------ ------ ------- -----
Old-age and survivors trust fund.. 140.6 60.8 140.3 157.5 1332.0 45.1
Civil Service retirement & disabil 30.6 13.2 30.4 40.9 613.8 20.8
Hospital insurance trust fund..... 28.3 12.2 35.4 38.8 271.3 9.2
Disability insurance trust fund... 22.1 9.6 17.2 19.6 172.7 5.8
Military retirement trust fund.... 7.6 3.3 3.2 6.8 166.9 5.6
Unemployment trust fund........... 2.2 1.0 -12.1 -3.3 73.2 2.5
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.... 1.4 0.6 -0.7 0.0 43.3 1.5
Supplementary medical insurance... -3.1 -1.3 -2.0 -1.1 38.9 1.3
Highway and Airport trust funds... -6.3 -2.7 -0.8 -1.7 35.3 1.2
Other government accounts......... 8.0 3.4 -1.5 38.5 208.3 7.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total investment in Federal debt.. 231.4 100.0 209.3 296.0 2955.6 100.0
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2003, Analytical
Perspectives, page 274, table 13-4
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