FEDERAL DEBT AT THE END OF FISCAL YEAR: 1940-2013
(billions of dollars)
Foreign
Federal Social Public deficit as % of
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare ---------------- Public
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt Total Foreign Debt
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------
1940 50.7 42.8 7.9 1.7
1941 57.5 48.2 9.3 2.4 -5.5
1942 79.2 67.8 11.4 3.2 -19.5
1943 142.6 127.8 14.9 4.3 -60.0
1944 204.1 184.8 19.3 5.4 -57.0
1945 260.1 235.2 24.9 6.6 -50.4
1946 271.0 241.9 29.1 7.6 -6.7
1947 257.1 224.3 32.8 8.8 17.5
1948 252.0 216.3 35.8 10.0 8.1
1949 252.6 214.3 38.3 11.3 1.9
1950 256.9 219.0 37.8 12.9 -4.7
1951 255.3 214.3 41.0 14.7 4.7
1952 259.1 214.8 44.3 16.6 -0.4
1953 266.0 218.4 47.6 18.4 -3.6
1954 270.8 224.5 46.3 20.0 -6.1
1955 274.4 226.6 47.8 21.1 -2.1
1956 272.7 222.2 50.5 22.6 4.5
1957 272.3 219.3 52.9 23.4 2.8
1958 279.7 226.3 53.3 23.9 -7.0
1959 287.5 234.7 52.8 23.2 -8.4
1960 290.5 236.8 53.7 23.0 -2.1
1961 292.6 238.4 54.3 23.4 -1.5
1962 302.9 248.0 54.9 22.2 -9.7
1963 310.3 254.0 56.3 21.4 -6.0
1964 316.1 256.8 59.2 22.0 -2.9
1965 322.3 260.8 12.3 61.5 22.2 -3.9 4.7
1966 328.5 263.7 11.6 64.8 21.6 0.9 -2.9 0.7 4.4
1967 340.4 266.6 11.4 73.8 25.6 1.8 -2.9 0.2 4.3
1968 368.7 289.5 10.7 79.1 28.1 1.7 -22.9 0.7 3.7
1969 365.8 278.1 10.3 87.7 31.9 2.4 11.4 0.4 3.7
1970 380.9 283.2 14.0 97.7 37.7 2.7 -5.1 -3.7 4.9
1971 408.2 303.0 31.8 105.1 40.8 3.4 -19.8 -17.8 10.5
1972 435.9 322.4 49.2 113.6 43.8 3.3 -19.3 -17.4 15.3
1973 466.3 340.9 59.4 125.4 44.3 5.1 -18.5 -10.2 17.4
1974 483.9 343.7 56.8 140.2 46.1 9.2 -2.8 2.6 16.5
1975 541.9 394.7 66.0 147.2 48.2 11.3 -51.0 -9.2 16.7
1976 629.0 477.4 69.8 151.6 44.9 12.1 -82.7 -3.8 14.6
1977 706.4 549.1 95.5 157.3 39.6 13.4 -71.7 -25.7 17.4
1978 776.6 607.1 121.0 169.5 35.4 15.8 -58.0 -25.5 19.9
1979 829.5 640.3 120.3 189.2 33.4 18.4 -33.2 0.7 18.8
1980 909.0 711.9 121.7 197.1 32.3 19.0 -71.6 -1.4 17.1
1981 994.8 789.4 130.7 205.4 27.2 21.8 -77.5 -9.0 16.6
1982 1137.3 924.6 140.6 212.7 19.3 26.7 -135.2 -9.9 15.2
1983 1371.7 1137.3 160.1 234.4 32.0 20.4 -212.7 -19.5 14.1
1984 1564.6 1307.0 175.5 257.6 32.2 26.0 -169.7 -15.4 13.4
1985 1817.4 1507.3 222.9 310.2 39.8 32.0 -200.3 -47.4 14.8
1986 2120.5 1740.6 265.5 379.9 45.9 48.1 -233.4 -42.6 15.3
1987 2346.0 1889.8 279.5 456.2 65.4 57.0 -149.1 -14.0 14.8
1988 2601.1 2051.6 345.9 549.5 104.2 72.3 -161.9 -66.4 16.9
1989 2867.8 2190.7 394.9 677.1 156.7 94.7 -139.1 -49.0 18.0
1990 3206.3 2411.6 440.3 794.7 214.9 110.2 -220.8 -45.4 18.3
1991 3598.2 2689.0 477.3 909.2 268.4 125.6 -277.4 -37.0 17.8
1992 4001.8 2999.7 535.2 1002.1 319.2 139.2 -310.7 -57.9 17.8
1993 4351.0 3248.4 591.3 1102.6 365.9 149.4 -248.7 -56.1 18.2
1994 4643.3 3433.1 655.8 1210.2 422.7 150.5 -184.7 -64.5 19.1
1995 4920.6 3604.4 800.4 1316.2 483.2 143.4 -171.3 -144.6 22.2
1996 5181.5 3734.1 993.4 1447.4 549.6 152.3 -129.7 -193.0 26.6
1997 5369.2 3772.3 1230.5 1596.9 630.9 151.2 -38.3 -237.1 32.6
1998 5478.2 3721.1 1224.2 1757.1 730.3 157.8 51.2 6.3 32.9
1999 5605.5 3632.4 1281.4 1973.2 855.0 184.1 88.7 -57.2 35.3
2000 5628.7 3409.8 1057.9 2218.9 1006.9 214.0 222.6 223.5 31.0
2001 5769.9 3319.6 1005.5 2450.3 1169.8 239.2 90.2 52.4 30.3
2002 6198.4 3540.4 1200.8 2658.0 1328.9 267.8 -220.8 -195.3 33.9
2003 6760.0 3913.4 1454.2 2846.6 1484.5 275.9 -373.0 -253.4 37.2
2004 7354.7 4295.5 1798.7 3059.1 1635.4 282.0 -382.1 -344.5 41.9
2005 7905.3 4592.2 1930.6 3313.1 1809.0 294.6 -296.7 -131.9 42.0
2006 8451.4 4829.0 2027.3 3622.4 1994.2 336.4 -236.8 -96.7 42.0
2007 8950.7 5035.1 2240.3 3915.6 2180.8 358.5 -206.2 -213.0 44.5
2008* 9654.4 5428.6 4225.8 2373.9 376.3 -393.5
2009* 10413.4 5856.2 4557.3 2578.6 394.1 -427.5
2010* 10954.4 6031.1 4923.3 2803.4 416.3 -174.9
2011* 11456.5 6139.7 5316.8 3044.5 437.9 -108.6
2012* 11868.1 6109.5 5758.6 3295.5 488.7 30.2
2013* 12276.4 6097.4 6179.0 3525.4 533.9 12.1
FEDERAL DEBT PROJECTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2007-2012
(billions of dollars)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- --------
2007* 9007.8 5083.3 3924.5 2179.6 357.8
2008* 9575.5 5345.4 4230.1 2388.9 386.9
2009* 10138.3 5553.6 4584.7 2616.4 414.4
2010* 10637.6 5671.2 4966.4 2862.6 445.4
2011* 11114.8 5748.3 5366.5 3129 468.5
2012* 11487.3 5711.1 5776.2 3378.2 514.7
CHANGE IN DEBT PROJECTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2007-2012
(billions of dollars)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- --------
2007 -57.1 -48.2 -8.9 1.2 0.7
2008 78.9 83.2 -4.3 -15.0 -10.6
2009 275.1 302.6 -27.4 -37.8 -20.3
2010 316.8 359.9 -43.1 -59.2 -29.1
2011 341.7 391.4 -49.7 -84.5 -30.6
2012 380.8 398.4 -17.6 -82.7 -26.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FEDERAL DEBT AT THE END OF FISCAL YEAR: 1940-2013
(percentage of GDP)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare GDP
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt ($bil)
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- -------
1940 52.4 44.2 8.2 1.8 96.8
1940 52.4 44.2 8.2 1.8 96.8
1941 50.4 42.3 8.2 2.1 114.1
1942 54.9 47.0 7.9 2.2 144.3
1943 79.1 70.9 8.3 2.4 180.3
1944 97.6 88.3 9.2 2.6 209.2
1945 117.5 106.2 11.3 3.0 221.4
1946 121.7 108.6 13.1 3.4 222.7
1947 110.3 96.2 14.1 3.8 233.2
1948 98.4 84.5 14.0 3.9 256.0
1949 93.2 79.1 14.1 4.2 271.1
1950 94.1 80.2 13.9 4.7 273.0
1951 79.6 66.9 12.8 4.6 320.6
1952 74.3 61.6 12.7 4.8 348.6
1953 71.3 58.6 12.8 4.9 372.9
1954 71.8 59.5 12.3 5.3 377.3
1955 69.5 57.4 12.1 5.4 394.6
1956 63.8 52.0 11.8 5.3 427.2
1957 60.5 48.7 11.8 5.2 450.3
1958 60.7 49.2 11.6 5.2 460.5
1959 58.5 47.8 10.7 4.7 491.5
1960 56.1 45.7 10.4 4.4 517.9
1961 55.1 44.9 10.2 4.4 530.8
1962 53.4 43.7 9.7 3.9 567.6
1963 51.8 42.4 9.4 3.6 598.7
1964 49.4 40.1 9.2 3.4 640.4
1965 46.9 38.0 1.8 9.0 3.2 687.1
1966 43.6 35.0 1.5 8.6 2.9 0.1 752.9
1967 41.9 32.8 1.4 9.1 3.1 0.2 811.8
1968 42.5 33.4 1.2 9.1 3.2 0.2 866.6
1969 38.6 29.3 1.1 9.2 3.4 0.3 948.6
1970 37.6 28.0 1.4 9.7 3.7 0.3 1012.2
1971 37.8 28.1 2.9 9.7 3.8 0.3 1079.9
1972 37.0 27.4 4.2 9.6 3.7 0.3 1178.3
1973 35.7 26.1 4.5 9.6 3.4 0.4 1307.6
1974 33.6 23.9 3.9 9.7 3.2 0.6 1439.3
1975 34.7 25.3 4.2 9.4 3.1 0.7 1560.7
1976 36.2 27.5 4.0 8.7 2.6 0.7 1736.5
1977 35.8 27.8 4.8 8.0 2.0 0.7 1974.3
1978 35.0 27.4 5.5 7.6 1.6 0.7 2217.0
1979 33.2 25.6 4.8 7.6 1.3 0.7 2500.7
1980 33.3 26.1 4.5 7.2 1.2 0.7 2726.7
1981 32.6 25.8 4.3 6.7 0.9 0.7 3054.7
1982 35.2 28.6 4.4 6.6 0.6 0.8 3227.6
1983 39.9 33.1 4.7 6.8 0.9 0.6 3440.7
1984 40.7 34.0 4.6 6.7 0.8 0.7 3840.2
1985 43.9 36.4 5.4 7.5 1.0 0.8 4141.5
1986 48.1 39.4 6.0 8.6 1.0 1.1 4412.4
1987 50.5 40.7 6.0 9.8 1.4 1.2 4647.1
1988 51.9 41.0 6.9 11.0 2.1 1.4 5008.6
1989 53.1 40.6 7.3 12.5 2.9 1.8 5400.5
1990 55.9 42.0 7.7 13.9 3.7 1.9 5735.4
1991 60.6 45.3 8.0 15.3 4.5 2.1 5935.1
1992 64.1 48.1 8.6 16.1 5.1 2.2 6239.9
1993 66.2 49.4 9.0 16.8 5.6 2.3 6575.5
1994 66.7 49.3 9.4 17.4 6.1 2.2 6961.3
1995 67.2 49.2 10.9 18.0 6.6 2.0 7325.8
1996 67.3 48.5 12.9 18.8 7.1 2.0 7694.1
1997 65.6 46.1 15.0 19.5 7.7 1.8 8182.4
1998 63.5 43.1 14.2 20.4 8.5 1.8 8627.9
1999 61.4 39.8 14.0 21.6 9.4 2.0 9125.3
2000 58.0 35.1 10.9 22.9 10.4 2.2 9709.8
2001 57.4 33.0 10.0 24.4 11.6 2.4 10057.9
2002 59.7 34.1 11.6 25.6 12.8 2.6 10377.4
2003 62.5 36.2 13.5 26.3 13.7 2.6 10808.6
2004 64.0 37.4 15.6 26.6 14.2 2.5 11499.9
2005 64.6 37.5 15.8 27.1 14.8 2.4 12237.9
2006 64.9 37.1 15.6 27.8 15.3 2.6 13015.5
2007 65.5 36.8 16.4 28.6 16.0 2.6 13667.5
2008* 67.5 37.9 29.5 16.6 2.6 14311.5
2009* 69.3 39.0 30.3 17.2 2.6 15027.0
2010* 69.4 38.2 31.2 17.8 2.6 15792.0
2011* 69.1 37.0 32.1 18.4 2.6 16580.2
2012* 68.2 35.1 33.1 18.9 2.8 17395.0
2013* 67.3 33.4 33.9 19.3 2.9 18243.3
FEDERAL DEBT PROJECTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2007-2012
(percentage of GDP)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare GDP
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt ($bil)
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- -------
2007* 65.5 36.9 28.5 15.8 2.6 13761.2
2008* 66.0 36.8 29.1 16.5 2.7 14515.0
2009* 66.2 36.3 30.0 17.1 2.7 15306.4
2010* 66.0 35.2 30.8 17.8 2.8 16112.4
2011* 65.6 33.9 31.7 18.5 2.8 16937.8
2012* 64.6 32.1 32.5 19.0 2.9 17786.0
CHANGE IN DEBT PROJECTIONS FROM PRIOR BUDGET: 2007-2012
(percentage of GDP)
Federal Social
Gross Public Foreign Gov't Security Medicare GDP
Year Debt Debt Debt Accounts Debt Debt ($bil)
---- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- -------
2007 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -93.7
2008 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 -203.5
2009 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -279.4
2010 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -320.4
2011 3.5 3.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -357.6
2012 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -391.0
* estimated
Note: Gross Debt equals debt held by the public (called Public Debt
above) plus debt held by federal government accounts;
Social Security includes Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Fund (OAS)
and Disability Insurance Fund (DI); Medicare includes Hospital
Insurance Fund (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance Fund (SMI)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2009: Historical Tables,
tables 7.1, 10.1, 13.1
=============================================================================
Among the points that the above tables illustrate are the following:
1) The gross federal debt has dropped from 67.3 to 65.5 percent of GDP
since 1996 but is still more than double the 32.6 percent of GDP that
it was at in 1981. The relative size of the debt is more critical than
that of the deficit since it is the debt, not the deficit, that we are
paying interest on and are obligated to pay back.
2) The gross federal debt is projected to peak at 69.4 percent of GDP in
2010. This will be its highest level since 1955. It is then projected
to drop back to 67.3 percent of GDP by 2013. In actual dollars, the
gross federal debt is projected to increase by about $3.3 trillion over
the next six years or about $554 billion per year.
3) The foreign holdings of federal debt increased sharply from 19.1
percent of the public debt in 1994 to 35.3 percent in 1999. It then
dropped to a low of 30.3 percent of the public debt in 2001 and is now
back up to a new record high of 44.5 percent. In actual dollars, the
foreign-held public debt has more than doubled since 2001.
4) From 2001 to 2007, the total public debt increased $1.716 trillion and
the foreign-held public debt increased $1.235 trillion. Hence, in
effect, about 72 percent of the total increase in the public debt
since 2001 has been borrowed from foreign sources.
5) From 1994 to 2007, the total public debt increased $1.602 trillion and
the foreign-held public debt increased $1.585 trillion. Hence, in
effect, about 99 percent of the total increase in the public debt
since 1994 has been borrowed from foreign sources.
6) Even with the surpluses in 1998 through 2001 and the projected
surpluses in 2012 and 2013, the gross debt has steadily increased and
will continue to increase every year. This is because the reported
deficit does not include monies borrowed from government accounts.
The following table shows the debts projected to be held by those
accounts in 2009.
================================================================================
DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS (billions of dollars)
Investment or disinvestment Holdings
------------------------------ end of
2007 % of 2008 2009 2009 % of
Description actual total est. est. est. total
---------------------------------- ------ ----- ------ ------ ------- -----
Old-age and survivors trust fund.. 175.1 59.7 187.7 201.7 2357.6 51.7
Civil service retirement & disabil 11.7 4.0 31.8 33.4 766.9 16.8
Hospital insurance trust fund..... 17.2 5.9 -5.3 10.9 324.9 7.1
Military retirement trust fund.... 8.4 2.9 25.2 32.6 248.0 5.4
Disability insurance trust fund... 11.7 4.0 4.1 3.4 221.3 4.9
Medicare-eligible retiree health.. 19.5 6.6 41.7 25.5 159.4 3.5
Unemployment trust fund........... 8.7 3.0 9.1 8.0 92.0 2.0
Supplementary medical insurance... 6.2 2.1 9.5 7.6 56.3 1.2
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.... 1.5 0.5 2.0 3.1 55.8 1.2
Employees life ins & health benfts 2.8 0.9 1.6 1.7 52.1 1.1
Postal Service retiree health fund 25.5 8.7 6.8 6.9 39.2 0.9
Housing and Urban Development..... 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 31.5 0.7
Nuclear waste disposal fund....... 1.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 21.8 0.5
Exchange stabilization fund....... 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.9 18.2 0.4
Foreign service retirement & disab 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 15.4 0.3
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp..... -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 14.5 0.3
Veteran affairs life insurance.... -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 10.7 0.2
Highway and Airport trust funds... 1.4 0.5 -4.9 -7.5 8.6 0.2
Other government accounts......... 1.2 0.4 -0.6 2.0 62.9 1.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total investment in Federal debt.. 293.2 100.0 310.2 331.4 4557.3 100.0
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2009,
Analytical Perspectives, page 236, table 16-4
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