HOSPITAL INSURANCE TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(in billions of dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum
Total Total Fund HI Tax Earnings
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --------
1966 755.8 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.35 6600
1967 810.2 2.6 3.1 1.3 0.50 6600
1968 868.5 3.8 3.9 1.4 0.60 7800
1969 948.3 4.8 5.3 2.0 0.60 7800
1970 1012.9 5.0 5.6 2.7 0.60 7800
1971 1080.3 5.6 6.0 3.1 0.60 7800
1972 1176.9 6.3 6.0 2.9 0.60 9000
1973 1311.0 6.8 8.4 4.4 1.00 10800
1974 1438.9 8.1 11.6 7.9 0.90 13200
1975 1560.8 10.6 12.6 9.9 0.90 14100
1976 1738.8 12.6 13.5 10.8 0.90 15300
1977 1974.4 15.2 15.4 11.1 0.90 16500
1978 2218.3 17.9 18.5 11.8 1.00 17700
1979 2502.4 20.3 21.9 13.4 1.05 22900
1980 2725.4 24.3 25.4 14.5 1.05 25900
1981 3058.6 29.2 32.9 18.1 1.30 29700
1982 3225.5 34.9 37.6 20.8 1.30 32400
1983 3442.7 38.6 43.9 13.8 1.30 35700
1984 3846.7 42.3 45.7 17.2 1.30 37800
1985 4148.9 48.7 50.9 21.3 1.35 39600
1986 4406.7 49.7 56.4 38.7 1.45 42000
1987 4654.4 50.8 62.7 50.6 1.45 43800
1988 5011.9 52.7 68.0 65.9 1.45 45000
1989 5401.7 58.2 75.1 82.8 1.45 48000
1990 5737.0 66.7 79.6 95.6 1.45 51300
1991 5934.2 70.7 85.0 109.9 1.45 125000
1992 6240.6 82.0 92.7 120.6 1.45 130200
1993 6578.4 91.6 95.3 126.1 1.45 135000
1994 6964.2 102.8 106.2 129.6 1.45 no max
1995 7325.1 114.9 114.8 129.5 1.45 :
1996 7697.4 127.7 123.5 125.3 1.45 :
1997 8186.6 137.9 128.5 116.0 1.45 :
1998 8626.3 137.3 138.2 116.9 1.45 :
1999 9127.0 131.5 153.0 138.4 1.45 :
2000 9708.4 130.0 159.7 168.1 1.45 :
2001 10040.7 142.9 172.2 197.4 1.45 :
2002 10373.4 148.0 179.7 229.1 1.45 :
2003 10828.3 153.8 175.8 251.1 1.45 :
2004* 11466.0 169.3 178.9 260.7 1.45 :
2005* 12042.4 184.5 195.2 271.3 1.45 :
2006* 12641.1 188.2 205.0 288.1 1.45 :
2007* 13279.1 197.6 216.9 307.4 1.45 :
2008* 13972.6 207.2 229.3 329.4 1.45 :
2009* 14701.6 218.8 241.7 352.2 1.45 :
======================================================================
HOSPITAL INSURANCE TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(in billions of 2000 dollars - Maximum Earnings in 2000 dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Composite
Total Total Fund HI Tax Earnings Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed Deflator
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------
1966 3828.8 0.3 4.6 4.3 0.35 33434.7 0.1974
1967 3999.0 12.8 15.2 6.6 0.50 32576.5 0.2026
1968 4129.8 18.1 18.6 6.8 0.60 37089.9 0.2103
1969 4252.5 21.3 24.0 9.0 0.60 34977.6 0.2230
1970 4286.5 21.0 23.8 11.3 0.60 33008.9 0.2363
1971 4288.6 22.2 23.9 12.3 0.60 30964.7 0.2519
1972 4375.1 23.3 22.4 10.6 0.60 33457.2 0.2690
1973 4627.6 24.2 29.5 15.4 1.00 38122.1 0.2833
1974 4687.0 26.3 37.8 25.8 0.90 42996.7 0.3070
1975 4612.3 31.4 37.1 29.2 0.90 41666.7 0.3384
1976 4776.9 34.6 37.2 29.8 0.90 42033.0 0.3640
1977 5018.8 38.7 39.1 28.3 0.90 41942.0 0.3934
1978 5288.0 42.6 44.2 28.1 1.00 42193.1 0.4195
1979 5497.4 44.7 48.1 29.4 1.05 50307.6 0.4552
1980 5419.4 48.3 50.5 28.8 1.05 51501.3 0.5029
1981 5499.1 52.6 59.1 32.5 1.30 53398.1 0.5562
1982 5413.7 58.5 63.1 35.0 1.30 54380.7 0.5958
1983 5512.7 61.7 70.4 22.1 1.30 57165.7 0.6245
1984 5868.3 64.5 69.8 26.3 1.30 57665.9 0.6555
1985 6118.4 71.8 75.1 31.4 1.35 58398.5 0.6781
1986 6343.3 71.5 81.2 55.7 1.45 60457.8 0.6947
1987 6516.0 71.1 87.8 70.8 1.45 61318.8 0.7143
1988 6810.6 71.7 92.4 89.5 1.45 61149.6 0.7359
1989 7078.6 76.3 98.4 108.4 1.45 62901.3 0.7631
1990 7278.6 84.6 100.9 121.3 1.45 65085.0 0.7882
1991 7214.0 86.0 103.4 133.6 1.45 151957.2 0.8226
1992 7335.0 96.3 108.9 141.8 1.45 153032.4 0.8508
1993 7539.7 105.0 109.2 144.6 1.45 154727.8 0.8725
1994 7823.2 115.4 119.3 145.5 1.45 no max 0.8902
1995 8031.9 126.0 125.9 142.0 1.45 : 0.9120
1996 8251.9 136.9 132.4 134.4 1.45 : 0.9328
1997 8610.2 145.0 135.2 122.0 1.45 : 0.9508
1998 8982.9 143.0 143.9 121.7 1.45 : 0.9603
1999 9362.9 134.9 157.0 142.0 1.45 : 0.9748
2000 9708.4 130.0 159.7 168.1 1.45 : 1.0000
2001 9811.1 139.6 168.3 192.9 1.45 : 1.0234
2002 9966.8 142.2 172.7 220.1 1.45 : 1.0408
2003 10192.3 144.8 165.5 236.3 1.45 : 1.0624
2004* 10597.0 156.5 165.4 240.9 1.45 : 1.0820
2005* 10938.7 167.6 177.3 246.5 1.45 : 1.1009
2006* 11190.8 166.6 181.4 255.1 1.45 : 1.1296
2007* 11525.0 171.5 188.2 266.8 1.45 : 1.1522
2008* 11877.4 176.2 194.9 280.0 1.45 : 1.1764
2009* 12225.9 182.0 201.0 292.9 1.45 : 1.2025
=====================================================================
HOSPITAL INSURANCE TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum
Total Total Fund HI Tax Earnings
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --------
1966 755.8 0.01 0.12 0.11 0.35 6600
1967 810.2 0.32 0.38 0.17 0.50 6600
1968 868.5 0.44 0.45 0.16 0.60 7800
1969 948.3 0.50 0.56 0.21 0.60 7800
1970 1012.9 0.49 0.55 0.26 0.60 7800
1971 1080.3 0.52 0.56 0.29 0.60 7800
1972 1176.9 0.53 0.51 0.24 0.60 9000
1973 1311.0 0.52 0.64 0.33 1.00 10800
1974 1438.9 0.56 0.81 0.55 0.90 13200
1975 1560.8 0.68 0.81 0.63 0.90 14100
1976 1738.8 0.72 0.78 0.62 0.90 15300
1977 1974.4 0.77 0.78 0.56 0.90 16500
1978 2218.3 0.81 0.84 0.53 1.00 17700
1979 2502.4 0.81 0.88 0.53 1.05 22900
1980 2725.4 0.89 0.93 0.53 1.05 25900
1981 3058.6 0.96 1.07 0.59 1.30 29700
1982 3225.5 1.08 1.17 0.65 1.30 32400
1983 3442.7 1.12 1.28 0.40 1.30 35700
1984 3846.7 1.10 1.19 0.45 1.30 37800
1985 4148.9 1.17 1.23 0.51 1.35 39600
1986 4406.7 1.13 1.28 0.88 1.45 42000
1987 4654.4 1.09 1.35 1.09 1.45 43800
1988 5011.9 1.05 1.36 1.31 1.45 45000
1989 5401.7 1.08 1.39 1.53 1.45 48000
1990 5737.0 1.16 1.39 1.67 1.45 51300
1991 5934.2 1.19 1.43 1.85 1.45 125000
1992 6240.6 1.31 1.49 1.93 1.45 130200
1993 6578.4 1.39 1.45 1.92 1.45 135000
1994 6964.2 1.48 1.52 1.86 1.45 no max
1995 7325.1 1.57 1.57 1.77 1.45 :
1996 7697.4 1.66 1.60 1.63 1.45 :
1997 8186.6 1.68 1.57 1.42 1.45 :
1998 8626.3 1.59 1.60 1.36 1.45 :
1999 9127.0 1.44 1.68 1.52 1.45 :
2000 9708.4 1.34 1.64 1.73 1.45 :
2001 10040.7 1.42 1.72 1.97 1.45 :
2002 10373.4 1.43 1.73 2.21 1.45 :
2003 10828.3 1.42 1.62 2.32 1.45 :
2004* 11466.0 1.48 1.56 2.27 1.45 :
2005* 12042.4 1.53 1.62 2.25 1.45 :
2006* 12641.1 1.49 1.62 2.28 1.45 :
2007* 13279.1 1.49 1.63 2.31 1.45 :
2008* 13972.6 1.48 1.64 2.36 1.45 :
2009* 14701.6 1.49 1.64 2.40 1.45 :
----------------------------------------------------------------------
* estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2005, Historical Tables,
table 10.1 and 13.1; HI Tax Rate and Maximum Earnings from
http://www.cms.hhs.gov/researchers/pubs/datacompendium/2002/02pg100.pdf
Note: HI Tax Rate is paid by employer and employee, each;
starting in 1994, all earnings are subject to the HI tax
SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(in billions of dollars)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total Total Premium % of Fund
Year GDP Outgo Income Income Outgo Balance
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
1965 687.5
1966 755.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1967 810.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 81.1 0.5
1968 868.5 1.5 1.4 0.7 45.6 0.3
1969 948.3 1.8 1.9 0.9 49.1 0.4
1970 1012.9 2.2 1.9 0.9 42.6 0.1
1971 1080.3 2.3 2.5 1.3 54.9 0.3
1972 1176.9 2.5 2.7 1.3 52.7 0.5
1973 1311.0 2.6 2.9 1.4 54.1 0.7
1974 1438.9 3.3 3.8 1.7 51.9 1.3
1975 1560.8 4.2 4.3 1.9 45.6 1.4
1976 1738.8 5.2 5.0 1.9 37.3 1.2
1977 1974.4 6.3 7.4 2.2 34.6 2.3
1978 2218.3 7.4 9.0 2.4 33.1 4.0
1979 2502.4 8.8 9.8 2.6 29.9 5.0
1980 2725.4 10.7 10.3 2.9 27.2 4.5
1981 3058.6 13.2 12.5 3.3 25.1 3.8
1982 3225.5 15.6 17.6 3.8 24.6 5.8
1983 3442.7 18.3 19.1 4.2 23.1 6.6
1984 3846.7 20.4 22.5 4.9 24.1 8.8
1985 4148.9 22.7 24.6 5.5 24.3 10.6
1986 4406.7 26.2 25.0 5.7 21.7 9.4
1987 4654.4 30.8 27.8 6.5 21.0 6.4
1988 5011.9 34.9 35.0 8.8 25.1 6.4
1989 5401.7 38.3 43.8 11.5 30.1 11.9
1990 5737.0 43.0 45.6 11.5 26.7 14.5
1991 5934.2 47.0 48.2 11.8 25.1 15.7
1992 6240.6 50.3 53.1 12.7 25.4 18.5
1993 6578.4 54.3 60.8 14.7 27.1 23.3
1994 6964.2 59.7 57.4 16.9 28.3 20.9
1995 7325.1 65.2 58.2 19.2 29.5 13.9
1996 7697.4 68.9 82.0 18.9 27.5 27.0
1997 8186.6 72.6 80.8 19.1 26.4 35.2
1998 8626.3 76.3 82.0 19.4 25.5 40.9
1999 9127.0 80.5 85.3 20.2 25.0 45.6
2000 9708.4 89.0 89.2 20.5 23.1 45.9
2001 10040.7 99.5 95.4 22.3 22.4 41.8
2002 10373.4 108.8 105.7 24.4 22.4 38.7
2003 10828.3 124.1 110.2 26.8 21.6 24.8
2004* 11466.0 133.3 129.3 30.5 22.9 20.8
2005* 12042.4 146.5 153.7 34.9 23.8 28.0
2006* 12641.1 208.5 216.1 47.3 22.7 42.0
2007* 13279.1 243.0 237.0 53.0 21.8 45.0
2008* 13972.6 259.2 252.7 56.7 21.9 48.1
2009* 14701.6 276.6 269.4 60.6 21.9 51.2
=======================================================================
SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(in billions of 2000 dollars)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Composite
Total Total Premium % of Fund Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Income Outgo Balance Deflator
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --------
1965 3565.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1928
1966 3828.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1974
1967 3999.0 3.9 6.3 3.2 81.1 2.4 0.2026
1968 4129.8 7.3 6.4 3.3 45.6 1.5 0.2103
1969 4252.5 8.3 8.6 4.0 49.1 1.7 0.2230
1970 4286.5 9.3 7.9 4.0 42.6 0.2 0.2363
1971 4288.6 9.1 10.0 5.0 54.9 1.2 0.2519
1972 4375.1 9.5 10.2 5.0 52.7 1.8 0.2690
1973 4627.6 9.3 10.2 5.0 54.1 2.6 0.2833
1974 4687.0 10.7 12.4 5.6 51.9 4.1 0.3070
1975 4612.3 12.3 12.8 5.6 45.6 4.2 0.3384
1976 4776.9 14.3 13.7 5.3 37.3 3.3 0.3640
1977 5018.8 16.1 18.8 5.6 34.6 5.8 0.3934
1978 5288.0 17.5 21.6 5.8 33.1 9.5 0.4195
1979 5497.4 19.3 21.6 5.8 29.9 11.0 0.4552
1980 5419.4 21.4 20.4 5.8 27.2 9.0 0.5029
1981 5499.1 23.8 22.4 6.0 25.1 6.7 0.5562
1982 5413.7 26.1 29.6 6.4 24.6 9.8 0.5958
1983 5512.7 29.3 30.7 6.8 23.1 10.6 0.6245
1984 5868.3 31.1 34.4 7.5 24.1 13.4 0.6555
1985 6118.4 33.5 36.2 8.1 24.3 15.7 0.6781
1986 6343.3 37.7 36.0 8.2 21.7 13.6 0.6947
1987 6516.0 43.2 38.9 9.1 21.0 8.9 0.7143
1988 6810.6 47.5 47.6 11.9 25.1 8.8 0.7359
1989 7078.6 50.2 57.4 15.1 30.1 15.6 0.7631
1990 7278.6 54.6 57.9 14.6 26.7 18.4 0.7882
1991 7214.0 57.2 58.6 14.4 25.1 19.1 0.8226
1992 7335.0 59.1 62.5 15.0 25.4 21.8 0.8508
1993 7539.7 62.2 69.7 16.8 27.1 26.7 0.8725
1994 7823.2 67.1 64.4 19.0 28.3 23.5 0.8902
1995 8031.9 71.5 63.8 21.1 29.5 15.2 0.9120
1996 8251.9 73.9 87.9 20.3 27.5 28.9 0.9328
1997 8610.2 76.3 85.0 20.1 26.4 37.0 0.9508
1998 8982.9 79.4 85.3 20.2 25.5 42.6 0.9603
1999 9362.9 82.6 87.5 20.7 25.0 46.8 0.9748
2000 9708.4 89.0 89.2 20.5 23.1 45.9 1.0000
2001 9811.1 97.2 93.2 21.8 22.4 40.8 1.0234
2002 9966.8 104.6 101.5 23.5 22.4 37.1 1.0408
2003 10192.3 116.8 103.7 25.3 21.6 23.3 1.0624
2004* 10597.0 123.2 119.5 28.1 22.9 19.2 1.0820
2005* 10938.7 133.1 139.6 31.7 23.8 25.5 1.1009
2006* 11190.8 184.5 191.3 41.8 22.7 37.2 1.1296
2007* 11525.0 210.9 205.7 46.0 21.8 39.0 1.1522
2008* 11877.4 220.3 214.8 48.2 21.9 40.9 1.1764
2009* 12225.9 230.0 224.1 50.4 21.9 42.6 1.2025
=======================================================================
SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2009
(percent of GDP)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total Total Premium % of Fund
Year GDP Outgo Income Income Outgo Balance
---- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
1965 687.5
1966 755.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1967 810.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 81.1 0.1
1968 868.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 45.6 0.0
1969 948.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 49.1 0.0
1970 1012.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 42.6 0.0
1971 1080.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 54.9 0.0
1972 1176.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 52.7 0.0
1973 1311.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 54.1 0.1
1974 1438.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 51.9 0.1
1975 1560.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 45.6 0.1
1976 1738.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 37.3 0.1
1977 1974.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 34.6 0.1
1978 2218.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 33.1 0.2
1979 2502.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 29.9 0.2
1980 2725.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 27.2 0.2
1981 3058.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 25.1 0.1
1982 3225.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 24.6 0.2
1983 3442.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 23.1 0.2
1984 3846.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 24.1 0.2
1985 4148.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 24.3 0.3
1986 4406.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 21.7 0.2
1987 4654.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 21.0 0.1
1988 5011.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 25.1 0.1
1989 5401.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 30.1 0.2
1990 5737.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 26.7 0.3
1991 5934.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 25.1 0.3
1992 6240.6 0.8 0.9 0.2 25.4 0.3
1993 6578.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 27.1 0.4
1994 6964.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 28.3 0.3
1995 7325.1 0.9 0.8 0.3 29.5 0.2
1996 7697.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 27.5 0.4
1997 8186.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 26.4 0.4
1998 8626.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 25.5 0.5
1999 9127.0 0.9 0.9 0.2 25.0 0.5
2000 9708.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 23.1 0.5
2001 10040.7 1.0 0.9 0.2 22.4 0.4
2002 10373.4 1.0 1.0 0.2 22.4 0.4
2003 10828.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 21.6 0.2
2004* 11466.0 1.2 1.1 0.3 22.9 0.2
2005* 12042.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 23.8 0.2
2006* 12641.1 1.6 1.7 0.4 22.7 0.3
2007* 13279.1 1.8 1.8 0.4 21.8 0.3
2008* 13972.6 1.9 1.8 0.4 21.9 0.3
2009* 14701.6 1.9 1.8 0.4 21.9 0.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
* estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2005,
Historical Tables, table 10.1 and 13.1
Note: The large increase in outgo and income in 2006 and thereafter
is mostly due to the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement,
and Modernization Act of 2003.
Among the points that the above graphs and tables illustrate are the
following:
1) Spending for Hospital Insurance (Medicare Part A) and Supplementary
Medical Insurance (Medicare Part B) has been generally growing at
a faster rate than the GDP.
2) The first graph shows a close correlation between the growth in HI
income as a percent of GDP and the HI Tax Rate. This may not be too
surprising. If you assume that the wage base is growing at about the
same rate as the GDP, then a constant tax rate should bring in the
same percentage of GDP. This implies that the main reason for the
rising HI Tax Rate is to support HI's above GDP growth.
This correlation appears to break down a bit starting around 1991.
But, as the first table shows, this is the year that the Maximum
Earnings Taxed more than doubled. The maximum was completely
eliminated in 1994.
3) The second graph shows the relatively small portion of Supplementary
Medical Insurance that is paid by premiums. The fourth table shows
that this portion dropped from a recent high of 29.5% of outgo in
1995 to 21.6% of outgo in 2003.
4) There is a large increase in outlays and income projected for the SMI
program in 2006 and after. This is mostly due to the recently passed
Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003.
Following is the cost of that program from 2003 through 2009:
Projected Net Cost of Medicare Reform Act of 2003 (billions of dollars)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0 3.402 3.993 44.878 64.909 70.939 77.490
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2005, Table 24-12
Go to Budget Home Page
