LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2011 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 19.0 18.0 20.6 14.8 19.6 19.8 20.0 19.9 18.7
Outlays............ 21.7 21.9 18.2 25.4 23.7 26.8 37.2 44.9 81.0
Discretionary.... 10.1 8.7 6.3 9.6 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
Mandatory........ 9.6 9.9 9.7 14.5 14.1 16.1 21.1 24.0 36.9
Social Security 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1
Medicare....... 1.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 4.0 5.3 9.6 11.9 22.0
Medicaid....... 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 3.5 4.1 6.6
Other.......... 3.7 3.2 2.4 4.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.1
Net Interest..... 1.9 3.2 2.3 1.3 3.5 4.5 10.0 14.8 38.0
Surplus/Deficit (-) -2.7 -3.9 2.4 -10.6 -4.2 -6.9 -17.1 -25.0 -62.3
Primary Surplus/Def -0.8 -0.6 4.7 -9.4 -0.7 -2.4 -7.2 -10.2 -24.3
Debt Held by Public 26.1 42.1 34.7 63.6 77.2 98.8 218.1 323.7 829.7
LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2011 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of receipts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 114.2 121.7 88.3 171.6 120.9 135.4 186.0 225.6 433.2
Discretionary.... 53.2 48.3 30.6 64.9 31.6 30.8 30.5 30.7 32.6
Mandatory........ 50.5 55.0 47.1 98.0 71.9 81.3 105.5 120.6 197.3
Social Security 22.6 23.9 19.9 33.1 25.5 28.3 27.0 26.6 27.3
Medicare....... 5.8 9.4 9.7 20.9 20.4 26.8 48.0 59.8 117.6
Medicaid....... 2.6 3.9 5.8 12.8 10.2 12.1 17.5 20.6 35.3
Other.......... 19.5 17.8 11.7 31.8 15.8 14.1 13.0 13.1 16.6
Net Interest..... 10.0 17.8 11.2 8.8 17.9 22.7 50.0 74.4 203.2
Surplus/Deficit (-) -14.2 -21.7 11.7 -71.6 -21.4 -34.8 -85.5 -125.6 -333.2
Primary Surplus/Def -4.2 -3.3 22.8 -63.5 -3.6 -12.1 -36.0 -51.3 -129.9
Debt Held by Public 137.4 233.9 168.4 429.7 393.9 499.0 1090.5 1626.6 4436.9
============================================================================================
LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2010 BUDGET: 1980-2080
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2060 2080
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 19.0 18.0 20.9 15.8 19.4 19.9 20.3 21.5 22.6
Outlays............ 21.7 21.8 18.4 24.4 22.9 25.9 28.5 33.0 38.2
Discretionary.... 10.1 8.7 6.3 9.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Mandatory........ 9.6 9.9 9.8 13.9 13.8 16.2 17.6 19.1 20.8
Social Security 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.0
Medicare....... 1.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 4.0 5.6 6.8 8.3 9.6
Medicaid....... 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3
Other.......... 3.7 3.2 2.4 4.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0
Net Interest..... 1.9 3.2 2.3 0.9 2.9 3.5 4.8 7.7 11.2
Surplus/Deficit (-) -2.7 -3.9 2.4 -8.5 -3.5 -6.0 -8.2 -11.5 -15.5
Primary Surplus/Def -0.8 -0.6 4.7 -7.6 -0.6 -2.5 -3.5 -3.8 -4.4
Debt Held by Public 26.1 42.0 35.1 67.1 70.7 87.5 118.7 191.0 275.0
LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2010 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of receipts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050* 2060 2085*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 114.2 121.1 88.0 154.4 118.0 130.2 147.1 153.5 172.7
Discretionary.... 53.2 48.3 30.1 60.8 32.0 31.2 29.7 28.8 27.1
Mandatory........ 50.5 55.0 46.9 88.0 71.1 81.4 87.8 88.8 92.8
Social Security 22.6 23.9 20.1 29.7 26.3 29.1 27.5 26.5 26.6
Medicare....... 5.8 9.4 9.6 19.6 20.6 28.1 36.1 38.6 43.4
Medicaid....... 2.6 3.9 5.7 12.7 10.8 12.1 14.1 14.4 14.6
Other.......... 19.5 17.8 11.5 25.9 13.9 12.1 10.0 9.3 8.7
Net Interest..... 10.0 17.8 11.0 5.7 14.9 17.6 29.9 35.8 52.8
Surplus/Deficit (-) -14.2 -21.7 11.5 -53.8 -18.0 -30.2 -47.1 -53.5 -72.1
Primary Surplus/Def -4.2 -3.3 22.5 -48.1 -3.1 -12.6 -17.5 -17.7 -19.9
Debt Held by Public 137.4 233.3 167.9 424.7 364.4 439.7 740.9 888.4 1294.0
============================================================================================
CHANGE IN LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2010 TO THE 2011 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of receipts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050* 2060 2085*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Outlays............ 0.0 0.6 0.3 17.2 2.9 5.2 38.9 72.1 260.5
Discretionary.... 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.8 5.5
Mandatory........ 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0 0.8 -0.1 17.7 31.8 104.5
Social Security 0.0 0.0 -0.2 3.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 0.7
Medicare....... 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 -0.2 -1.4 11.9 21.2 74.3
Medicaid....... 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.6 0.1 3.4 6.2 20.6
Other.......... 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.8 1.9 2.1 3.0 3.8 7.8
Net Interest..... 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 2.9 5.1 20.1 38.6 150.4
Surplus/Deficit (-) 0.0 0.0 0.2 -17.8 -3.4 -4.7 -38.4 -72.1 -261.0
Primary Surplus/Def 0.0 0.0 0.3 -15.4 -0.5 0.4 -18.5 -33.6 -110.1
Debt Held by Public 0.0 0.6 0.5 5.0 29.4 59.3 349.6 738.3 3142.9
* interpolation was used for figures from the 2010 Budget
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note 1: The figures from the 2011 Budget for 2030 and beyond are the product of a long-range
forecasting model maintained by the Office of Management and Budget. This model is
separate from the models and capabilities that produce detailed programmatic
estimates in the Budget. It was designed to produce long-range forecasts based on
additional assumptions regarding growth of the economy, the long-range evolution of
specific programs, and the demographic and economic forces affecting those programs.
The model, its assumptions, and sensitivity testing of those assumptions are
presented in Chapter 5 of the Analytical Perspectives.
Note 2: These projections do not include any possible savings from the health care reform
proposals being considered when this budget was released. Chapter 5 states that
"the baseline does not include these savings because the final form of the
legislation was not resolved in time for the Administration to produce detailed
estimates of its long-run effects".
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2011 , Analytical Perspectives,
page 47, Table 5-1;
Budget of the United States Government, FY 2010 , Analytical Perspectives,
page 192, Table 13-2
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