Medicare Outlays
           PROJECTED MEDICARE OUTLAYS (percentage of GDP)

        2001    2003    2002    2004    2003    2005    2004    2006
Year     TR^  Budget     TR^  Budget     TR^  Budget     TR^  Budget
----  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------
1995*                   2.45            2.45            2.45    2.10
2000*   2.24    2.00    2.26    2.00    2.28    2.00    2.29    2.25~

2005    2.41    2.10    2.38    2.30~   2.54    2.45~   2.76    2.40
2010    2.57    2.30    2.54    2.60    2.69    2.90    3.66    2.85~
2015    2.89    2.60~   2.59    3.00~   3.04    3.40~   4.24    3.30
2020    3.34    2.90    2.86    3.40    3.53    3.90    5.08    3.95~
2025    3.90    3.40~   3.33    4.00~   4.13    4.90~   6.04    4.60
2030    4.51    3.90    3.89    4.60    4.75    5.90    6.95    5.30~
2035    5.03    4.35~   4.48    5.05~   5.30    6.65~   7.75    6.00
2040    5.41    4.80    5.00    5.50    5.74    7.40    8.41    6.50~
2045    5.72    5.15~   5.38    5.88~   6.10    7.95~   9.00    7.00
2050    6.01    5.50    5.69    6.25~   6.45    8.50~   9.56    7.45~
2055    6.36    5.94~   5.97    6.63~   6.87    9.05~  10.16    7.90
2060    6.83    6.38~   6.31    7.00    7.37    9.60   10.89    8.50~
2065    7.38    6.82~   6.76    7.58~   7.91   10.33~  11.68    9.10
2070    7.94    7.26~   7.29    8.15~   8.49   11.05~  12.51    9.75~
2075    8.49    7.70    7.87    8.73~   9.05   11.78~  13.34   10.40
2080                    8.43    9.30           12.50   13.85

* actual values
~ estimated via interpolation
^ TR = Trustees Report

Source: 2001 Trustees Report of the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, Table III.B1.;
        2002 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A3.;
        2003 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A3.;
        2004 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A2.;
        U.S. Budget, FY 2003, Analytical Perspectives, Table 32;
        U.S. Budget, FY 2004, Analytical Perspectives, Table 32;
        U.S. Budget, FY 2006, Analytical Perspectives, Table 122;
        U.S. Budget, FY 2006, Analytical Perspectives, Table 132

======================================================================

According to text in the Analytical Perspectives, the projections for
Medicare in the 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 Budgets are based on the
actuarial projections in the 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 Medicare
Trustees Reports, respectively.  Given this and the above graph and
table, the following points are evident:

1) Although the Budget projections are based on the Trustee Report
   projections, they are never identical.  There appears to be some
   adjustment being made in every case.
2) The projections of Medicare outlays in the 2003 Budget are slightly
   lower than the 2001 Trustees Report on which they are based.  On
   the other hand, the projections in the 2004 Budget are slightly
   higher than the 2002 Trustees Report on which they are based.  In
   2075, the differences are 0.79 and 0.86 percent of GDP, respectively.
3) The projections in the 2005 Budget are much higher than the 2003
   Trustees Report on which they are based.  In 2075, the difference
   is 2.73 percent of GDP.  This is explained by accompanying text
   that states that the figures are "adjusted for the effects of the
   Medicare prescription drug and modernization bill enacted in
   December 2003".
4) The projections in the 2006 Budget are much lower than the 2004
   Trustees Report on which they are based and are a fair amount lower
   than the previous budget's projections.  In 2075, the differences
   are 2.94 and 1.38 percent of GDP, respectively.  I could not find
   an explanation for this difference in the accompanying text.

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