OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1940-2002
(in billions of 1992 dollars - Maximum Earnings in 1992 dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Composite
Total Total Fund OAS Tax Earnings Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed Deflator
---- ------- ------ ------ ------- ------- ------- --------
1940 1128.0 0.3 6.8 20.1 1.00 3000 0.0867
1941 1269.5 1.0 8.2 26.4 1.00 3000 0.0909
1942 1381.2 1.3 9.2 30.7 1.00 3000 0.1052
1943 1531.5 1.5 10.4 36.4 1.00 3000 0.1174
1944 1868.9 2.0 12.6 49.2 1.00 3000 0.1106
1945 2022.3 2.5 13.3 61.5 1.00 3000 0.1075
1946 2086.2 3.4 13.3 73.2 1.00 3000 0.1044
1947 1829.5 3.7 13.0 70.4 1.00 3000 0.1249
1948 1980.5 4.4 14.1 78.5 1.00 3000 0.1280
1949 2095.6 5.1 15.0 87.9 1.00 3000 0.1286
1950 2045.0 5.9 17.8 96.7 1.50 3000 0.1333
1951 2473.0 12.1 26.3 113.5 1.50 3600 0.1298
1952 2615.7 15.5 29.5 124.3 1.50 3600 0.1335
1953 2586.1 18.9 31.1 127.5 1.50 3600 0.1440
1954 2525.8 22.5 33.8 134.2 2.00 3600 0.1493
1955 2605.4 29.2 36.5 139.3 2.00 4200 0.1518
1956 2662.9 34.2 43.3 141.0 2.00 4200 0.1602
1957 2643.4 39.2 41.7 135.3 2.00 4200 0.1702
1958 2550.3 44.7 43.5 126.8 2.00 4200 0.1799
1959 2554.5 48.9 42.3 112.4 2.25 4800 0.1917
1960 2576.0 55.0 51.5 103.6 2.75 4800 0.2012
1961 2572.3 56.9 57.3 101.5 2.75 4800 0.2062
1962 2718.3 63.6 57.6 94.2 2.875 4800 0.2087
1963 2768.0 67.1 64.0 87.7 3.375 4800 0.2164
1964 2909.5 69.5 73.0 89.8 3.375 4800 0.2199
1965 3084.0 71.7 73.7 90.7 3.375 4800 0.2227
1966 3279.7 81.8 80.4 86.7 3.50 6600 0.2295
1967 3428.6 83.3 98.7 99.4 3.55 6600 0.2368
1968 3515.6 87.6 95.8 103.5 3.325 7800 0.2469
1969 3638.1 94.7 104.9 108.2 3.725 7800 0.2606
1970 3650.6 98.8 114.8 118.0 3.65 7800 0.2765
1971 3665.9 109.8 115.6 116.9 4.05 7800 0.2939
1972 3768.8 114.8 121.4 116.6 4.05 9000 0.3123
1973 3984.1 133.0 133.0 111.1 4.30 10800 0.3280
1974 4054.4 139.5 143.6 106.8 4.375 13200 0.3547
1975 3964.5 144.5 149.8 101.9 4.375 14100 0.3921
1976 4121.0 153.1 148.4 90.5 4.375 15300 0.4199
1977 4342.3 161.8 158.1 77.9 4.375 16500 0.4540
1978 4555.5 167.2 158.1 63.8 4.275 17700 0.4857
1979 4738.8 171.1 165.0 52.7 4.33 22900 0.5267
1980 4672.5 177.4 171.9 42.2 4.52 25900 0.5819
1981 4748.6 190.5 189.3 37.1 4.70 29700 0.6421
1982 4677.8 200.9 184.5 18.3 4.575 32400 0.6865
1983 4755.9 214.0 209.3 37.1 4.775 35700 0.7195
1984 5052.4 215.2 216.5 36.5 5.20 37800 0.7545
1985 5239.6 219.2 232.8 43.3 5.20 39600 0.7829
1986 5433.9 223.1 243.9 46.6 5.20 42000 0.8050
1987 5566.4 225.8 250.8 70.4 5.20 43800 0.8273
1988 5796.3 231.6 276.8 113.5 5.53 45000 0.8546
1989 6011.9 236.1 293.7 166.6 5.53 48000 0.8902
1990 6140.8 242.5 302.0 219.8 5.60 51300 0.9257
1991 6043.1 251.4 305.1 263.5 5.60 53400 0.9695
1992 6143.2 256.3 307.2 306.3 5.60 55500 1.0000
1993 6311.7 263.3 311.5 346.9 5.60 57600 1.0252
1994 6510.1 268.4 326.2 396.8 5.26 60600 1.0492
1995 6688.6 274.1 303.5 416.9 5.26 61200 1.0745
1996 6809.8 277.9 324.8 454.4 5.26 62700 1.0991
1997* 6960.7 283.2 340.3 499.9 5.35 65400 1.1283
1998* 7091.7 287.1 348.4 548.0 5.35 1.1589
1999* 7236.8 291.3 357.8 600.1 5.35 1.1900
2000* 7398.9 295.8 365.3 653.7 5.30 1.2222
2001* 7568.2 301.2 372.9 708.6 5.30 1.2544
2002* 7747.3 306.6 382.4 766.8 5.30 1.2863
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1998, Historical
Tables, table 10.1 and 13.1; OAS Tax Rate and Maximum Earnings
from 1996 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the OASDI
Trust Fund, Table II.B1, page 33
Note: OAS Tax Rate is paid by employer and employee, each; after 1996,
maximum earnings taxed is based on increases in average wages
DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1957-2002
(in billions of 1992 dollars - Maximum Earnings in 1992 dollars)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Composite
Total Total Fund DI Tax Earnings Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed Deflator
---- ------- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------- --------
1957 2643.4 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.25 4200 0.1702
1958 2550.3 1.0 5.2 6.1 0.25 4200 0.1799
1959 2554.5 1.9 4.8 8.7 0.25 4800 0.1917
1960 2576.0 2.8 5.3 10.8 0.25 4800 0.2012
1961 2572.3 3.6 5.3 12.1 0.25 4800 0.2062
1962 2718.3 5.2 5.2 12.0 0.25 4800 0.2087
1963 2768.0 5.8 5.3 11.1 0.25 4800 0.2164
1964 2909.5 6.1 5.5 10.3 0.25 4800 0.2199
1965 3084.0 6.7 5.6 9.0 0.25 4800 0.2227
1966 3279.7 8.4 7.0 7.4 0.35 6600 0.2295
1967 3428.6 8.4 9.8 8.5 0.35 6600 0.2368
1968 3515.6 9.1 11.3 10.5 0.475 7800 0.2469
1969 3638.1 10.0 14.2 14.1 0.475 7800 0.2606
1970 3650.6 10.7 15.8 18.5 0.55 7800 0.2765
1971 3665.9 12.3 16.7 21.8 0.55 7800 0.2939
1972 3768.8 13.8 16.9 23.7 0.55 9000 0.3123
1973 3984.1 16.7 18.1 24.0 0.55 10800 0.3280
1974 4054.4 18.0 19.1 23.3 0.575 13200 0.3547
1975 3964.5 20.4 20.2 20.9 0.575 14100 0.3921
1976 4121.0 22.9 19.9 16.5 0.575 15300 0.4199
1977 4342.3 25.5 20.6 9.4 0.575 16500 0.4540
1978 4555.5 26.1 26.3 9.0 0.775 17700 0.4857
1979 4738.8 26.5 28.9 10.7 0.75 22900 0.5267
1980 4672.5 26.3 29.9 13.2 0.56 25900 0.5819
1981 4748.6 26.9 20.2 5.3 0.65 29700 0.6421
1982 4677.8 26.3 31.2 9.8 0.825 32400 0.6865
1983 4755.9 25.4 30.4 7.4 0.625 35700 0.7195
1984 5052.4 24.5 23.6 6.2 0.50 37800 0.7545
1985 5239.6 24.7 23.1 7.5 0.50 39600 0.7829
1986 5433.9 25.1 25.1 10.4 0.50 42000 0.8050
1987 5566.4 25.7 24.3 8.7 0.50 43800 0.8273
1988 5796.3 26.2 26.3 8.5 0.53 45000 0.8546
1989 6011.9 26.4 27.6 9.4 0.53 48000 0.8902
1990 6140.8 27.3 30.6 12.4 0.60 51300 0.9257
1991 6043.1 29.5 31.1 13.4 0.60 53400 0.9695
1992 6143.2 31.3 31.2 12.9 0.60 55500 1.0000
1993 6311.7 33.8 31.3 10.1 0.60 57600 1.0252
1994 6510.1 36.2 32.5 6.1 0.94 60600 1.0492
1995 6688.6 38.5 65.3 32.8 0.94 61200 1.0745
1996 6809.8 40.5 54.1 45.6 0.94 62700 1.0991
1997* 6960.7 42.7 52.8 54.5 0.85 65400 1.1283
1998* 7091.7 44.6 52.7 61.1 0.85 1.1589
1999* 7236.8 46.5 54.1 67.2 0.85 1.1900
2000* 7398.9 48.7 57.8 74.6 0.90 1.2222
2001* 7568.2 50.9 60.1 81.8 0.90 1.2544
2002* 7747.3 53.3 61.6 88.1 0.90 1.2863
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
*estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1998, Historical
Tables, table 10.1 and 13.1; DI Tax Rate and Maximum Earnings
from 1996 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the OASDI
Trust Fund, Table II.B1, page 33
Note: DI Tax Rate is paid by employer and employee, each; after 1996,
maximum earnings taxed is based on increases in average wages
Among the points that the above graphs and tables illustrate are the
following:
1) Spending for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OAS) generally grew
faster than the GDP up until 1983. Since then, it has stabilized
in relation to the GDP (but has continued to outpace inflation).
2) Spending for Disability Insurance (DI) generally grew faster than
the GDP up until 1977, dropped from then until 1990, then resumed
its faster-than-GDP growth.
3) Despite its recent growth, DI spending is still much lower than OAS
spending. In 1996, DI spending was about 14.6% of OAS spending.
4) The third graph shows a close correlation between the growth in OAS
income as a percent of GDP and the OAS Tax Rate. Likewise, the fourth
graph shows a close correlation between the growth in DI income as a
percent of GDP and the DI Tax Rate. This may not be too surprising.
Assuming that the wage base is growing at about the same rate as the
GDP, then a constant tax rate should bring in the same percentage of
GDP. This implies that the main reason for the rising OAS and DI Tax
Rates has been to support those programs' above GDP growth.
5) The OAS Trust Fund balance approached zero in 1982. In 1983, $17.5
billion was borrowed from other trust funds (it was repaid in 1985 and
1986), COLAs were deferred for six months, and various other steps
were taken to shore up the fund.
6) The DI Trust Fund balance approached zero in 1994. The percentage
of OASDI taxes allocated to DI was increased to shore up the fund.
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