CBO Projections for Tax Deal: 2009-2020 CBO Projections for Tax Deal: 2009-2020
                                                   CBOs Baseline Budget Projections
                                                                                                                         Total,   Total
                         Actual                                                                                           2011-   2011-
Year                       2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2015    2020
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
                                       (in billions of dollars)                                                                        
Total Receipts            2,105   2,143   2,648   2,953   3,236   3,561   3,743   3,975   4,201   4,421   4,640   4,856  16,140  38,234
Total Outlays             3,518   3,485   3,714   3,618   3,760   4,000   4,250   4,560   4,780   4,983   5,274   5,541  19,342  44,480
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Deficit(-)               -1,413  -1,342  -1,066    -665    -525    -438    -507    -585    -579    -562    -634    -685  -3,202  -6,246
                                                                                                                                       
Debt Held by the Public   7,545   9,031  10,007  10,790  11,422  11,950  12,544  13,214  13,885  14,546  15,281  16,073    n.a.    n.a.
Gross Federal Debt       11,876  13,538  14,642  15,591  16,421  17,183  18,051  19,007  19,978  20,956  22,018  23,132    n.a.    n.a.
                                                                                                                                       
Gross Domestic Product   14,230  14,666  15,148  15,764  16,705  17,760  18,630  19,508  20,398  21,293  22,205  23,154  84,008 190,567
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                       
                                                       (as a percentage of GDP)                                                                        
                                                                                                                                       
Total Receipts             14.8    14.6    17.5    18.7    19.4    20.1    20.1    20.4    20.6    20.8    20.9    21.0    19.2    20.1
Total Outlays              24.7    23.8    24.5    23.0    22.5    22.5    22.8    23.4    23.4    23.4    23.8    23.9    23.0    23.3
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Deficit(-)                 -9.9    -9.1    -7.0    -4.2    -3.1    -2.5    -2.7    -3.0    -2.8    -2.6    -2.9    -3.0    -3.8    -3.3
                                                                                                                                       
Debt Held by the Public    53.0    61.6    66.1    68.5    68.4    67.3    67.3    67.7    68.1    68.3    68.8    69.4    n.a.    n.a. 
Gross Federal Debt         83.5    92.3    96.7    98.9    98.3    96.8    96.9    97.4    97.9    98.4    99.2    99.9    n.a.    n.a. 
=======================================================================================================================================
                           Budgetary Effects of Selected Policy Alternatives Not Included in CBOs Baseline                                
                                                                                                                         Total,   Total 
                         Actual                                                                                           2011-   2011- 
Year                       2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2015    2020
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
                                                       (in billions of dollars)
Extend EGTRRA, JGTRRA,
  and AMT fix                 0       0    -200    -302    -357    -402    -453    -506    -563    -621    -684    -753  -1,714  -4,840
Cost of Tax Deal (S.A. 4753)
  Changes in Receipts         0       0    -337    -362     -81       7      17      13      10       6       3       2    -756    -721
  Changes in Outlays          0       0      37      61      39       0       0       0       0       0       0       0     136     136

Total Effect on Deficit       0       0    -374    -423    -120       7      17      13      10       6       3       2    -893    -858
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
                                                 (in billions of dollars, cumulative)
Extend EGTRRA, JGTRRA,
  and AMT fix                 0       0    -200    -502    -859  -1,261  -1,714  -2,220  -2,783  -3,403  -4,087  -4,840  -1,714  -4,840
Cost of Tax Deal (S.A. 4753)
  Changes in Receipts         0       0    -337    -699    -780    -774    -756    -743    -733    -727    -723    -721    -756    -721
  Changes in Outlays          0       0      37      98     136     136     136     136     136     136     136     136     136     136
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Total Effect on Deficit       0       0    -374    -797    -917    -910    -893    -879    -869    -863    -860    -858    -893    -858
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                       
                                                       (as a percentage of GDP)                                                                        
Extend EGTRRA, JGTRRA,
  and AMT fix               0.0     0.0    -1.3    -1.9    -2.1    -2.3    -2.4    -2.6    -2.8    -2.9    -3.1    -3.3    -2.0    -2.5
Cost of Tax Deal (S.A. 4753)
  Changes in Receipts       0.0     0.0    -2.2    -2.3    -0.5     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    -0.9    -0.4
  Changes in Outlays        0.0     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.1
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Total Effect on Deficit     0.0     0.0    -2.5    -2.7    -0.7     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    -1.1    -0.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                       
                                                 (as a percentage of GDP, cumulative)
Extend EGTRRA, JGTRRA,
  and AMT fix               0.0     0.0    -1.3    -3.2    -5.1    -7.1    -9.2   -11.4   -13.6   -16.0   -18.4   -20.9    -9.2   -20.9
Cost of Tax Deal (S.A. 4753)
  Changes in Receipts       0.0     0.0    -2.2    -4.4    -4.7    -4.4    -4.1    -3.8    -3.6    -3.4    -3.3    -3.1    -4.1    -3.1
  Changes in Outlays        0.0     0.0     0.2     0.6     0.8     0.8     0.7     0.7     0.7     0.6     0.6     0.6     0.7     0.6
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Total Effect on Deficit     0.0     0.0    -2.5    -5.1    -5.5    -5.1    -4.8    -4.5    -4.3    -4.1    -3.9    -3.7    -4.8    -3.7
=======================================================================================================================================
                                      CBOs Baseline Budget Projections plus Tax Deal (S.A. 4753)
                                                                                                                         Total,   Total
                         Actual                                                                                           2011-   2011-
Year                       2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2015    2020
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
                                       (in billions of dollars)
Total Receipts            2,105   2,143   2,310   2,591   3,155   3,568   3,760   3,989   4,211   4,427   4,644   4,858  15,384  37,513
Total Outlays             3,518   3,485   3,750   3,679   3,799   4,000   4,250   4,560   4,780   4,983   5,274   5,541  19,479  44,617
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Deficit(-)               -1,413  -1,342  -1,440  -1,088    -644    -432    -490    -571    -569    -556    -631    -683  -4,095  -7,104

Debt Held by the Public   7,545   9,031  10,381  11,587  12,339  12,861  13,437  14,093  14,754  15,409  16,141  16,931    n.a.    n.a.
Gross Federal Debt       11,876  13,538  15,016  16,388  17,338  18,093  18,944  19,886  20,847  21,819  22,878  23,990    n.a.    n.a.

Gross Domestic Product   14,230  14,666  15,148  15,764  16,705  17,760  18,630  19,508  20,398  21,293  22,205  23,154  84,008 190,567
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                       
                                                       (as a percentage of GDP)                                                                        

Total Receipts             14.8    14.6    15.3    16.4    18.9    20.1    20.2    20.4    20.6    20.8    20.9    21.0    18.3    19.7
Total Outlays              24.7    23.8    24.8    23.3    22.7    22.5    22.8    23.4    23.4    23.4    23.8    23.9    23.2    23.4
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
Deficit(-)                 -9.9    -9.1    -9.5    -6.9    -3.9    -2.4    -2.6    -2.9    -2.8    -2.6    -2.8    -3.0    -4.9    -3.7

Debt Held by the Public    53.0    61.6    68.5    73.5    73.9    72.4    72.1    72.2    72.3    72.4    72.7    73.1    n.a.    n.a.
Gross Federal Debt         83.5    92.3    99.1   104.0   103.8   101.9   101.7   101.9   102.2   102.5   103.0   103.6    n.a.    n.a.
=======================================================================================================================================
                               CBOs Baseline Budget Projections plus extend EGTRRA, JGTRRA, and AMT fix
                                                                                                                         Total,   Total
                         Actual                                                                                           2011-   2011-
Year                       2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2015    2020
-----------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------                                                                                                                                      
                                       (in billions of dollars)
Total Receipts            2,105   2,143   2,448   2,651   2,878   3,160   3,290   3,469   3,638   3,800   3,957   4,103  14,426  33,394
Total Outlays             3,518   3,485   3,714   3,618   3,760   4,000   4,250   4,560   4,780   4,983   5,274   5,541  19,342  44,480

Deficit(-)               -1,413  -1,342  -1,266    -967    -882    -840    -961  -1,091  -1,141  -1,183  -1,318  -1,438  -4,916 -11,086

Debt Held by the Public   7,545   9,031  10,207  11,292  12,280  13,211  14,258  15,434  16,668  17,949  19,368  20,913    n.a.    n.a.
Gross Federal Debt       11,876  13,538  14,842  16,092  17,280  18,444  19,765  21,227  22,760  24,360  26,105  27,972    n.a.    n.a.

Gross Domestic Product   14,230  14,666  15,148  15,764  16,705  17,760  18,630  19,508  20,398  21,293  22,205  23,154  84,008 190,567
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                       
                                                       (as a percentage of GDP)                                                                        

Total Receipts             14.8    14.6    16.2    16.8    17.2    17.8    17.7    17.8    17.8    17.8    17.8    17.7    17.2    17.5
Total Outlays              24.7    23.8    24.5    23.0    22.5    22.5    22.8    23.4    23.4    23.4    23.8    23.9    23.0    23.3

Deficit(-)                 -9.9    -9.1    -8.4    -6.1    -5.3    -4.7    -5.2    -5.6    -5.6    -5.6    -5.9    -6.2    -5.9    -5.8

Debt Held by the Public    53.0    61.6    67.4    71.6    73.5    74.4    76.5    79.1    81.7    84.3    87.2    90.3    n.a.    n.a.
Gross Federal Debt         83.5    92.3    98.0   102.1   103.4   103.9   106.1   108.8   111.6   114.4   117.6   120.8    n.a.    n.a.

Source: CBO Estimate of Changes in Revenues and Direct Spending for S.A. 4753,
        CBO Budget Projections, August 2010

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